LG=IFEK
8;E\n;I\]fid;Mf`Z\
9P;ALC@<KK<;=
8@IC<P
Washington attracts no shortage of academics and consultants who offer commentary
and, at times, dissenting views
WV;ÅVIVKQIT;XWTQKa;;<PM;;PILW_;
Financial Regulatory Committee
at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a case in point. The
ÅVIVKQIT;KZQ[Q[;PI[;[XI_VML;[WUM;
additions to the breed, notably
4WVLWV¼[; 1V\MZVI\QWVIT; +MV\ZM;
for Financial Regulation (see Risk
Professional, August 2009).
The Pew Charitable Trusts,
_PQKP; PI[; XZQVKQXIT; WNÅKM[; QV;
Philadelphia and Washington,
has launched the Pew Financial
:MNWZU;8ZWRMK\;\W;[\]La;IVL;XZW-
XW[M;[XMKQÅK;ZMO]TI\QWV[;;1V;5Ia;
it announced formation of a task
force that draws in part from the
existing think tank establishment
·; 5IZ\QV; *IQ Ta; WN ;\PM; *ZW WSQVO[;
Institution and AEI’s Peter Wal-lison are co-chairs. It hired as
XZWRMK\; LQZMK\WZ; +PIZTM[; <Ia TWZ;;
formerly senior adviser and director of operational risk at the
Philadelphia-based Risk Management Association.
“We‘ve brought together a
group of experts from liberal to
KWV[MZ^I\Q^M;º; [Ia[; <Ia TWZ;; _PW;
has also been managing director
of strategy development at Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.,
a partner of Accenture and executive director of the Group
of Thirty. “Our view is that this
is too important for partisan
politics to determine the general
[PIXM; WN ;_PI\;PIXXMV[;º;
)T[W; QVKT]LQVO; QVAE]MV\QIT;
economists such as Princeton
University professor and former
Federal Reserve vice chairman
Alan Blinder, John Taylor of
Stanford University and Avinash
Persaud of Intelligence Capital
4QUQ\ML;; \PM; XIVMT; UMM\[; M^MZa;
six weeks in the capital for a dinner followed by a full day of dis-
cussions.
“The biggest topic has been
what the role of the Federal
Reserve should or shouldn’t be
when it comes to installing a
systemic risk monitor or regula-
\WZ;º; ZMXWZ\[; *MVV; ;\MQT;; I; \I[S;
force member and director of
international economics at the
Council on Foreign Relations in
New York. A resolution authority for failed institutions and a
consumer protection agency are
other points of debate.
“Some people on the panel
believe that you need no new
resolution authority at all and the
:_Xic\j;KXpcfi
way the bankruptcy code works is
[]NÅKQMV\;º;[Ia[;XZWUQVMV\;JIVS-
ing lawyer H. Rodgin Cohen,
chairman of New York’s Sullivan & Cromwell. “Others think
that we need an amendment to
the bankruptcy code, and a third
group wants a whole new resolu-
\QWV; ZMOQUM;º; +WPMV; []XXWZ\ML;
the latter because the bankruptcy
KWLM; ¹LWM[; VW\; OQ^M; []NÅKQMV\;
AEM`QJQTQ\a;\W;\PM;QVKZMLQJTM;[Q\]I-
tions which could arise and have
P]OM;[a[\MUQK;QUXIK\;º
:WJMZ\; 4Q\IV;; I; [KPWTIZ; INÅTQ-
ated with both Brookings and the
Kauffman Foundation of Kansas
City, Missouri, and a member of
the Shadow Financial Regulatory
Committee, says, “AEI members
believe most problems can be
Å`ML;Ja;XZW^QLQVO;I;ZQOP\;NZIUM-
work for markets to work and are
more skeptical of government
regulation, while the Pew task
force is heterogeneous, more bal-
IVKML; QV; \PQ[; IZMI;º; 5QVLN] T; WN ;
the disagreements, “our function
is to lay out the basis for those arguments and let decision makers
LZI_;\PMQZ;W_V;KWVKT][QWV[;º;
N_Xk;8i\;K_\;F[[j6;9P;C@J8;K@99@KKJ
The probability that a dollar of catastrophe loss paid out
by an insurance company will
JM;NWZ;ÅZM;LIUIOM;Q[;;;QV;;;;;;;
The odds that a payout will be
N WZ; _QVL;; PIQ T;; WZ; AEW WL; LIUIOM;
are 1 in 31.97.
Such statistics are the stock in
trade of www.bookofodds.com, a
Web site chock-full of data from
^MZQÅIJTM;; IKILMUQKITTa; [W]VL;
sources. (In the case of the numbers above: the Insurance Information Institute.) Its mission
is “to help people
understand risk and
]VKMZ\IQV\aº; IJW]\;
“the most common
M^MV\[;QV;\PMQZ;TQ^M[;º;
says Amram Shapiro, president and
founder of Book of
Odds. His research
staff contributes expertise ranging from
biochemistry to economics for “odds state-
UMV\[º;QV;NW]Z;JZWIL;KI\MOWZQM[";
accidents and death,
daily life and activities, health and illness, and relationships and society.
As veteran management consultants,
Shapiro and chief
WXMZI\QVO; WNÅKMZ;
4W]Q[M; .QZ\P; +IUX-
bell have more than
a passing familiarity
with risk management.
*WWS; WN ;7LL[¼;[\a TQbML;¹*º; TWOW;
is in part a homage to the Man-delbrot set, a quantitative invention of famed Yale University
mathematician Benoit Mandel-brot.
The site has been in development for three years, funded by
Shapiro’s family and friends. He
expects it will be sustained over
time by advertising, business
partnerships and merchandising.
For $15.95, you can have your
favorite odds statement printed
on a T-shirt.
